Shopping trends: planning ahead for Holiday 2026
New research shows that Americans’ shopping behaviours are evolving, with important implications for how people discover, research, and buy products during the critical end-of-year gifting season.
In this article, we’ll examine these trends in detail, and explore what they might mean for brands and retailers alike.
Similarweb’s 2026 Holiday Planning Report
The majority of our findings come from Similarweb’s 2026 Holiday Planning Report, which identifies trends from the 2025 Holiday season, and translates them into recommendations for retail success in the upcoming 2026 Holiday season.
DataReportal’s analysis of the data presented in this report identifies three key themes that will influence the way people approach Holiday shopping this year:
People’s decision-making processes are getting longer;
How people define and perceive value in a retail context is evolving;
Brands and merchants need to engage with people in new and different ways in order to optimise their outcomes.
1. Duration of decision making
One of the most important takeaways from Similarweb’s report is that the “shopping journey” appears to be starting earlier, and now involves a greater degree of active research than it did a few years ago.
There are various reasons for this, but it seems that consumer confidence and financial uncertainty play particularly important roles, so let’s start by exploring that context.
US consumer confidence
Similarweb’s Market Research Panel data from January 2026 indicates that – overall – US consumers expect their financial situation to be better in Holiday 2026 than it was in Holiday 2025.
For comparison, roughly 2.5 times as many people expect their level of “financial comfort” to be better during the 2026 Holiday season compared with their sentiment during Holiday 2025.
However, whilst these trends offer cause for optimism, financial uncertainty remains an important consideration, especially amongst older generations.
As Similarweb’s analysts note,
“This points to a consumer base that is not carefree, but increasingly open to spending when the value proposition feels right.”
For added context, third-party data from The Conference Board (TCB) suggests that America’s overall consumer confidence has been on a downward trajectory since a post-Covid rebound in mid-2021.
TCB’s analysts note that “overall confidence improved modestly for a second month” in March 2026, but that the month’s overall Consumer Confidence Index value of 91.8 is still meaningfully lower than the baseline value of 100 set in 1985, and Index scores have remained below 100 since early 2025.
Moreover, TCB’s research indicates that American consumers are more confident about their near-term financial position than they are about the longer-term outlook.
The Board’s March 2026 Consumer Confidence Survey revealed that:
“The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased by 4.6 points to 123.3. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—declined by 1.7 points to 70.9.”
In this sense, Similarweb’s Panel data offers a more optimistic perspective on the future, with respondents to its January 2026 Market Research Panel appearing to be more confident about their future finances than respondents to TCB’s survey.
However, TCB’s data aligns with Similarweb’s Panel data when it comes to demographic trends, with TCB’s March 2026 figures indicating that financial sentiment amongst older generations is significantly below that of younger people.
Specifically, TCB reports that the Consumer Confidence Index remains above 100 for Millennials and Gen Z, but falls below 100 for the Silent Generation, Baby Boomers, and Gen X.
And the latter demographic has the lowest confidence of any generation in TCB’s data, with Gen X’s March 2026 Index value barely staying above 80.
Whilst already interesting in its own right, this demographic divide has particular significance when we consider that data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) suggests older generations accounted for the majority of US consumer spending in 2024, excluding expenditure on housing, healthcare, education, and transportation.
For perspective, the BLS’s data indicates the following shares of national consumer spend:
Gen X (born 1965 to 1980): ~32%
Baby Boomers and Silent Generation (born prior to 1964): ~29%
More broadly, “consumer units” – which are loosely equivalent to “households” – headed by people aged 45 and above accounted for more than 60% of America’s total spending on consumer products in 2024.
It’s important to highlight that this is broadly in line with the share of US consumer units headed by people in this age group though, so this figure appears to be driven mainly by US demographics and household structures, rather than by disproportionate spending amongst older generations.
Shoppers appear to be more cautious
Despite a greater share of survey respondents telling Similarweb that their financial situation during Holiday 2025 was better than it was in 2024, respondents typically said that they ended up spending less during Holiday 2025 than they did the year before.
As Similarweb’s analysts note:
“…caution is now structural. Recent years of cost pressure have reshaped behaviour, with many consumers maintaining tighter control even when their circumstances improve.”
However, this trend correlates more with a change in behaviour than an outright suppression of demand.
Interestingly, Similarweb’s survey found that shoppers’ primary response to greater uncertainty was to reduce the number of items that they purchase, with twice as many respondents citing “buying fewer items overall” compared with the number who said that they traded down to “more affordable options” (42% vs 21%, respectively).
Respondents also highlighted more considered and deliberate purchases, with 35% emphasising “practical or useful gifts”.
And perhaps most importantly for marketers, the survey found that more than 3 in 10 shoppers (31%) planned their purchases earlier than usual.
Moreover, 28% said that they spread their Holiday spending across multiple sales events, indicating that overall shopping activity now lasts longer than it did in previous years.
In other words, many people appear to have adopted a more “strategic” approach to Holiday shopping in 2025.
With economic uncertainty persisting at the time of writing – especially with ongoing hostilities in Western Asia resulting in higher oil prices – it’s reasonable to expect that this more considered and diverse approach to Holiday shopping will continue in 2026.
Even if the situation improves though, Similarweb’s team offer some important guidance for brands and retailers:
“It's clear that recovery in consumer confidence does not automatically unlock volume growth. Success increasingly depends on helping consumers feel in control of their spending through clear value cues, well-timed promotions, and balancing practicality with aspiration.”
As a result, it’s well worth exploring how marketers and retailers can optimise their approaches for these new consumer behaviours.
2. Evolving concepts of value
One of the most salient findings in Similarweb’s report is an apparent change in how people think about “value”.
During Holiday 2025:
“Shoppers responded more strongly to credibility, relevance, and perceived quality than to aggressive markdowns alone. Brands that communicate clear value propositions and demonstrate reliability will outperform those relying on volume-led promotional tactics.”
For context, more than 4 in 10 respondents to Similarweb’s survey (42.7%) indicate that they’re more price sensitive today than they were two to three years ago.
However, as we saw above, price sensitivity does not necessarily result in people trading down to lower-priced alternatives.
“Even in a category driven by emotion and seasonal urgency, shoppers are comparing options, reading reviews, and weighing value more deliberately. Consumers are becoming more informed across the board, supported by tools that make comparison and evaluation easier than ever. As access to structured information and AI-assisted guidance increases, even lower-ticket, gift-led categories are subject to greater scrutiny, reinforcing that no sector is immune to the rise of the researched shopper.”
In other words, people appear to be thinking more consciously about what they get for their money.
For example, 27% of respondents say that they research products more carefully than they did a couple of years ago, which is significantly higher than the 4.5% who say that their behaviour hasn’t changed significantly.
And furthermore, people now research and compare a greater number of options, in terms of both products and retailers.
Moreover, within people’s broadening diversity of comparison, it appears that the role played by brands is evolving.
In fact, 19.1% of respondents said that they now “rely less on brand names alone”, which is more than 2.5 times greater than the 7.3% who say that they “rely more on brand names”.
However, this doesn’t mean that people are ignoring brands, nor that purchases are becoming commoditised.
Rather, these responses indicate that people look beyond surface level marketing, to understand brands’ broader propositions.
Moreover, people appear to be better able to resist impulse and “FOMO” when it comes to short-lived deals:
“Consumers are no longer persuaded by the sheer number of offers or messages. Instead, they gravitate towards brands that reduce complexity, signal reliability, and validate their choices, providing reassurance rather than pressure at the point of decision.”
3. Marketing as a journey
Similarweb’s data also reveals that people may be considering purchases over a longer time period than they used to.
In particular, with specific reference to Holiday behaviours, people seem to be starting their research and planning earlier in the year, with Similarweb noting that “the consideration window continues to move forward”.
However, despite starting their research earlier in the season, people still appear to reach conclusions relatively quickly:
“Early engagement [is] increasingly predictive of peak-period success… Performance ahead of Black Friday and Cyber Week sets momentum that is difficult to reverse later, underscoring the importance of pre-season execution and early validation.”
This “quick confidence” may be the result of people paying attention to a wider variety of signals in the run-up to the Holiday season.
Indeed, in one of the most illuminating findings in this research, Similarweb highlights the compounding effect of marketing messages over time:
“Brand recognition alone is less likely to secure attention or conversion. Visibility across research and comparison stages has become critical, as shoppers actively look beyond a single retailer or brand before buying. Brands that fail to consistently appear during these moments risk being filtered out early, regardless of recognition. In this environment, winning is as much about being seen as being chosen. Ensuring strong presence wherever consumers research, compare, and validate purchases is now essential to remaining in consideration at all.”
In other words, marketers need to adopt a coherent approach to delivering enduring visibility and relevance over time.
And these findings highlight – once again – why marketers still need to strike a careful balance between long-term brand building and near-term performance marketing and conversion activities.
Moreover, Similarweb’s findings highlight how important it is that the messaging of these potentially disparate activities works in harmony.
Distilling the findings further, the research suggests that marketers should:
Begin brand-building activities earlier, offering clear value propositions that go beyond discounts.
Ensure that shorter-term performance activities factor a “conversion window” that may extend over a few weeks rather than a few days.
Talking of specific timings, Similarweb’s report highlights that:
“Across sectors, view peaks typically precede purchase peaks by several days as shoppers compare options and assess value.”
Moreover, Similarweb’s research indicates that many of these recent trends will continue to advance during the 2026 Holiday season.
In particular, more than half of survey respondents (50.7%) indicated that they expect to start planning their purchases even earlier this year, so now is the time for marketers and retailers to start their own preparations.
A closer look at the role of AI
Despite AI’s relative infancy, Similarweb’s research shows that these tools are already delivering a profound impact on shopping behaviours.
As the report’s analysts assert,
“Holiday research is increasingly being shaped by new technologies, with AI tools moving quickly from fringe to familiar.
While Marketplace retailer sites remain the primary destination for many shoppers, around one in five [US] consumers are already using AI to explore and compare gift options - a level that is rising fast and already a third of the scale of search engine usage for gifting research.
This reflects a shift away from purely linear journeys, as shoppers look for faster synthesis, clearer trade-offs, and greater confidence in value before committing to purchase.”
Overall, more than half of US shoppers (56.6%) expect to use AI for at least some of their Holiday shopping activities in 2026.
Moreover, more than 1 in 3 American shoppers – 37.1% – say that they expect to use AI more this year than they did in previous years.
But it’s critical to note that AI is still just one of the tools that people use to inform their choices.
Moreover, in most cases, AI augments and accelerates choice, but it does not deliver the answer on its own:
“AI-driven discovery and recommendation tools amplify [and reinforce] existing preferences rather than reshaping them.”
And that particular finding adds greater weight to the importance of building marketing momentum earlier in the decision-making journey:
“By validating consumer choices and favouring brands with early traction, AI makes early credibility and clarity even more critical, reducing the effectiveness of late-stage intervention.”
Indeed, data suggests that AI is also influencing how quickly people reach a decision, with Similarweb’s analysts noting that “AI-led journeys are compressing the funnel”.
Meanwhile, the rapid evolution of AI technology means that different individuals may receive different recommendations from these tools, and also see markedly different selections of brands.
However, as AI responses become more and more tailored to individual users’ needs, they may deliver even better performance for the cited brands and merchants:
“As these systems continue to learn from context and behaviour, recommendations will become more precise and more aligned to individual needs. That will not only increase the quality of traffic, but further raise the ceiling on conversion performance.”
Convince and convert
Interestingly, Similarweb’s data indicates that referrals from AI tools already convert at a higher rate than inbound traffic coming from most other channels.
Paid search traffic still delivers the highest rate of conversion (7.8%), but Similarweb reports that ChatGPT ranks second across the various channels in its study, with retail traffic arriving from the generative AI (GenAI) platform converting at a rate of 7.1%.
Relatively speaking, that indicates that GenAI converts 6% more frequently than direct traffic does, and more than twice as frequently as social media and email referrals do.
Similarweb’s analysts suggest that this outperformance is indicative of AI researchers’ intent, asserting:
“By the time a user clicks through from an AI tool, much of the discovery, comparison, and validation has already taken place within the conversation itself. The referral is not the start of the journey; it is often the final step before purchase.”
Conclusions
Similarweb’s full report goes much deeper into trends by product category, so I’d strongly recommend you read the whole thing.
However, to wrap up this review, I’ll leave you with these sage words from Similarweb’s own analysts:
“Looking ahead to 2026, winning will not be about louder promotions or deeper discounts. It will be defined by how early brands earn trust, how clearly they communicate value, and how effectively they align with a consumer who now plans ahead, decides earlier, and expects consistency across the entire season.”
Disclosures: Similarweb is one of DataReportal’s primary research partners. However, this article represents DataReportal’s independent analysis of Similarweb’s report and data, and neither DataReportal, its analysts, nor its owners received financial compensation from Similarweb for the production or publication of this article.
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